Watch This Space: Instant Analysis From Tonight’s Debate

This blog is going to be a little different than some of our others – it is, for the moment, just a “head’s up”.

As you most likely know, the VP Debate between Harris and Pence will start in only a few hours. Embee is going to immediately launch a survey afterwards, and get real-time feedback and analysis up within minutes afterward, and publish it.

Our goal is to be the first ones to have real feedback, from real people, using a pre-qualified and demographically balanced panel, and to provide detailed analysis available to the public. 

There’s a distinct benefit to doing it as quickly as possible — it helps us make sure we are getting people’s very first impressions, before their perceptions may be changed by what they read and hear elsewhere. (Same goes for us, too!)

Fact is, we already did a “dry run” of this idea during the Presidential debate a few weeks ago. Like many of you, I watched the Presidential debate with my family. Immediately afterward, we began wondering who “won”. Whereupon, I realized: I could just ask! So, I logged into Embee’s DIY research portal ResearchDesk, and using our QuickPoll feature, I jotted out a few questions and launched it. Within minutes, we had responses. 64 minutes later, I had over 500+ responses, and had downloaded the results. I took a video of the whole process, end-to-end (see below).

The following morning, I sent the results to Justin, our VP of Client Success (and subject matter expert on all things research-related), who quickly created the cross-tabs and uncovered some very interesting insights. I’ve copied and pasted those below, too.

However, by the time Justin had done that, it was already the next day. And, as we all know, the news moves too quickly to wait a day or two to publish results!

So tonight, we’re going to try something a little more ambitious — we’re going to launch the survey right after the debate, just as we did last time, and also get all results and all the analysis done the same night, too. So, by the time everyone wakes up tomorrow morning, its already done!

So for now, just watch this space!

Lastly, in case you haven’t seen it before, check out Embee’s Real-Time Election Tracker. This is a completely free and publicly available real-time dashboard with lots of interesting data about the status of the election. For the past few months, Embee has been continuously tracking the Presidential race and incorporating those results, and other data, into this dashboard. There are lots of interesting insights you can see by looking at different groups of people — how are Facebook users different than Instagram users, how does your new sources impact your preferences, how are different demographics leaning, and more! Enjoy!

Video of creating, launching and fielding the first Presidential Debate poll immediately after the debate:

And lastly, Justin’s analysis of the results of the First Presidential Debate QuickPoll:

  • Over 40% watched all of it
    • More males watched it than females
    • A25-44 were less likely to watch it
    • Blacks were much more likely to watch it than whites. Only 19% of blacks didn’t watch any of it
    • Hispanics watched only some it
    • 56% of retirees watched all of it. Only 30% of homemakers did
    • Watching some or all of it is strongly corelated to income
    • Republican states in 2016 were more likely to watch all of it. In fact, nearly half of people in battleground states that Biden is defending didn’t watch it.
    • 56% of people who said they’d vote Biden watched it all, compared to only 45% of people who said they’d vote for Trump. However, Undecided Voters were unlikely to watch it, or if they did, most likely to watch only some
  • 39% though Biden won. 29% thought Trump won. But 32% thought there was no winner.
    • Males more likely to think Biden won
    • <45 year olds more likely to think Biden won
    • Thinking Biden won is strongly correlated with education level
    • Blacks and Asians thought Biden trounced it. However, whites leant to Trump as winner.
    • Hispanics were more likely to think Biden won it
    • By occupation, homemakers were the only group to think that Trump won
    • Poor and Rich thought that Biden trounced it, but middle-income ($25-80k hhi) were close to tied
    • There was no census region where more people thought Trump won
    • In safe trump states, more people thought that Trump won, but in states that Trump is defending, 40% thought Biden won compared to 29% thinking Trump won.
    • People who say they’ll vote for Trump thought Trump won, and vice versa. However, Trump voters are much more likely to say that ‘no-one one’
  • 24% of people who watched it said they heard something that changed their mind
    • Males more likely to have changed their mind
    • <45 more likely to have changed their mind
    • More educated are more likely to have changed their mind
    • Blacks and Asians are more likely to have changed their mind
    • Retirees and Homemakers were very unlikely to have heard anything that changed their mind
    • People in the MW region were very much less likely to have heard anything to change their mind
    • 36% of people who now say they’ll vote for Biden say they heard something to change their mind, compared to only 11% of people who say they’ll vote for Trump
  • 51% say they’ll vote Biden; 41% Trump; with 8% undecided
    • Males more likely to vote Biden. This counters the election tracker results.
    • Trump only getting more votes by age group from the A35-44. All other age groups have a Biden majority.
    • Biden support correlates with education level
    • Little difference between Hispanics and Non-hispanics. Hispanics are more likely to be undecided.
    • Other than homemakers, all occupation segments are supporting Biden
    • Biden has more votes in each census region, but it’s close in the MW and S regions
    • Biden has 51% of votes, compared to 40% for Trump in the states that Trump is defending.